We know that there is an ongoing civil war in Libya. The war is happening just because of two major powers in the Middle- East. One is Turkey and the other one is Saudi Arabia. Actually the fight is for getting more grounds in international arena as both of the countries desire to be an influential actor of that region. The fight has now taken place in Libya, where the Saudis are using Egypt to counter Turkey.
Things We Should Know
Egypt is located beside Mediterranean Sea and it controls Suez Canal, which has the most significance in oil trade. The canal connects Mediterranean Sea with Red Sea. Besides, it is one of the Muslim nations which recognizes Israel as an independent state. Recently, scientists have found a vast amount of natural gas and oil in Mediterranean. By using that reserve, countries beside of Mediterranean can export them to Europe.
Now, Europe is getting gas from Russia. This is one of the concerns of US. US wants from Europe to get gas from other sources but due to cost, Europe didn’t pay any heed to US. But after the exploration of Mediterranean, Europe is considering to get gas from the Egypt, Israel, Greece and Lebanon. Some days ago, those countries had organized a meeting to discuss about the potentials of the reserve. Turkey thinks this action as threat because there is an undergoing project named Nord Stream 2 in Turkey to export gas via Russia to Europe. By this, Turkey will be able to earn some currency. To materialize the project, Turkey has already invested multi-billion dollars. If Europe starts to get Gas from that group, the Turkish project will be worthless and the billions will go in vain. It will also affect the declining popularity of Erdogan. Also, Turkey backed Qatar during Saudi led blockade. But for geopolitical reasons, the interest of Qatar is shifting towards the coalition, which has forced Turkey to find new allies in this region and the internal disputes in Libya has provided the opportunity. Turkey, Italy and Qatar support the Government of National Accord (GNA) and Egypt, Russia, UAE and France support LNA (Libyan National Army) led by Khalifa Haftar, former general of Gaddafi. Haftar supports the anti-Turkey groups and GNA is recognized by UN. But for not getting adequate help, they lost 90% of Libya to LNA. Turkey came to rescue GNA at the cost of a pact. The pact provides direct access of Turkey in Libyan sea and by using this term, Turkey can also use it’s fleet to explore oil and gas as well as can deploy their navy to protect the pact. This possesses direct threat towards the opposition. The weak side of this pact is that, it will last if and only if GNA eliminates Haftar and secures it’s position in Libya. That’s why Turkey is helping GNA extensively.
Fig: Proposed shared maritime zone between Turkey and Libya
Source: thejerusalempost.com
Turkish Intervention:
Turkey has provided GNA with their state of art technologies and giving direct training. Some weapons are given to them to experiment their efficacy and modify them according to need. The GNA is using Bayraktar TB-2 UAV and Akinci UCAV to counter Haftar’s troops. Libya is mainly comprises of plain terrains. So, air dominance is the key factor to win the war. Along with UAVs, Turkey is giving GNA missiles and financial aids. For Turkey’s help, GNA has annexed Al Watya airbase, the largest airbase of western Libya. Before Turkey’s help, LNA almost encircled GNA but now, LNA is now on the brink of collapse. One of the important cities, Sirte is now vulnerable of LNA operations. Though LNA also used CH-4 drones, made by China, are not as capable of Turkish origins. Besides, they are vulnerable to air defense systems. Turkish parliament has also passed a bill to deploy Turkish troops in Libya. It is also in air that Turkey may install an operational military base in Libya. This is one of the headaches of Egypt.
Fig: Bayraktar TB-2
Source: defenceturkeymagazine.com
Fig: Akinci Drone
Source: hurriyetdailynews.net
Fig: UMTAS missile
Source: armyrecognition.com
Fig: CH-4 Drone
Source: janedefenceweekly.com
Egypt’s Warning
Egypt has warned GNA to not to attack Sirte and Al Jufra airbase. President Sisi called those locations as red line and warned about the direct intervention of Egypt. Egypt has also proposed ceasefire in Libya but GNA rejected the proposal. Interesting fact is, GNA also proposed ceasefire but LNA rejected the proposal in early of this year.
What Will Happen in Future:
Though Egypt has vowed to take action against GNA, it’s military is not able to continue a war against both guerillas and professional army. Along with, Egypt has got problems from Ethiopia due to it’s Grand Renaissance Dam project, which will severely decrease the flow of Nile in Egypt, hampering 80% of people’s lifestyle and Sinai insurgency will force Egypt to station some of it’s troops there. If Egypt somehow decides to go on a total war with GNA, they won’t be able to deploy more than 50% of their troops. Also, Turkey has technological advantages. Turkish planes can fire and forget missiles, which means they can fire a missile after locking it and the missile will hit the target automatically, whereas the Egyptian air force doesn’t possess this kind of technology. Turkey has got better jammers and decoys to confuse Egyptians. The key problem of Turkey is the supply chain as Libya is situated 2,186 km south from Turkey. On the other hand, Egypt lies beside of Libya. If Turkey establishes it’s bases in Libya, then something may happen in this sector. If war breaks out, the oil price will rise and it will affect the third world countries most. The key thing is that, superpowers won’t let the war last long due to this reason. The result of war may dethrone Erdogan or Sisi. Let’s see what is in future.
